Six weeks ago, suggesting Republicans might hold the House would have gotten you laughed out of most political forecasting circles. Today the RealClearPolitics generic congressional ballot average has moved from Democrats plus 8 to Democrats plus 5, and suddenly nobody is laughing. As USA Journal reported, a new RMG poll from July 13 to 14 puts it at Democrats 47, Republicans 45, which represents a four point swing toward Republicans since May alone.
Sean Trende, one of the most respected election analysts in the country and an analyst at RealClearPolitics, posted the quiet part out loud: we are now in territory where it is "conceivable that Republicans hold the House." He attributed the shift to soft Republicans coming home, noting that "(saying 53-47D is usually statistically indistinguishable from 52.5-47.5D) and you can see this tightening repeated in apples-to-apples comparisons across multiple polls. Something is happening. I think it's just soft Rs returning, but it's worth noting."
Trende also added a warning about what happens if the popular vote margin stays narrow but the seats don't follow: "I should add that I think the system can handle a party winning the popular vote by a point or so but losing the House. But if it stretches to a 3-4 point differential, which is may, it is going to be ugly."
So what is the Democratic Party doing about all this? Mostly fighting with itself, which is always a winning strategy. The party currently has no economic message because the economy is improving under someone else's watch. It has no foreign policy message because Trump just conducted the most consequential military operation in a decade. And its legislative record consists largely of voting no on things. Meanwhile, an internal civil war between the shrinking establishment wing and a growing socialist insurgency is draining money, energy, and credibility from every competitive race simultaneously.
The fundraising picture is not helping either. Democratic campaign committees are getting outpaced while being forced to defend seats in districts that should be safe. The Platner catastrophe in Maine ate up weeks of national attention and millions in redirected resources. DSA primary wins in New York and Colorado are forcing the party to fund candidates it does not actually want, which is the political equivalent of being forced to eat your least favorite meal and then pay for it.
Then there is North Carolina. Roy Cooper, once discussed as presidential material and one of the most popular Democratic governors in the country, is leading Republican Michael Whatley by only four points. That number comes from Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm. When the pollster your side is paying cannot find you more than a four point lead against a candidate still building name recognition, that is what professionals call "a problem." If Whatley wins North Carolina, the Democratic path to a Senate majority essentially ceases to exist.
None of this is a done deal. Gas prices matter. Iran matters. The economy matters. And Republicans have a well documented talent for finding creative ways to lose elections they should win. But three points in six weeks is three points in six weeks, and pretending it is not happening does not make it stop.
Read more conservative news commentary at: USA Journal News
