Remember 2018, when Democrats rode into the midterms on a glorious tsunami of anti-Trump fury and flipped the House like a pancake at an IHOP? Good times. Well, as reported by Trending Views, the latest polling suggests the sequel is not going nearly as well. The blue wave has been downgraded to what can only be described as the political equivalent of a bathtub splash from a toddler.
Let's start with the number that should have Democratic strategists reaching for the Tums. Democratic disapproval of Trump has dropped from 90% in 2018 to 69% today. That is a 21 point collapse in the very emotion that powered the entire 2018 strategy. Nearly one in three Democrats who used to be fired up enough about opposing Trump to make it their whole personality have apparently found other hobbies. Maybe they got into pickleball. Who knows.
The generic congressional ballot is equally grim for the blue team. In 2018, Democrats led by 10 points heading into the midterms. Today they are up by just 3 points in the Washington Post/Ipsos poll. Analysts who track these things for a living have a pretty simple rule of thumb: anything under D+4 on election night likely means Republicans hold the House. So Democrats are not just underperforming their 2018 glory days. They are underperforming the bare minimum threshold they need to actually win anything.
It gets worse. On the question of which party voters trust more on important issues, Republicans are now tied with or leading Democrats. For an opposition party heading into a midterm, that is like showing up to a spelling bee and forgetting how to spell your own name. The out of power party is supposed to benefit from general voter grumpiness about whoever is running the show. Instead, Republicans are matching or beating Democrats on the fundamental question of who is looking out for regular people.
Sarah Longwell, who runs an anti-Trump operation and would love nothing more than to deliver good news to the Democratic side, was refreshingly honest about it. She said Democrats believe voters will flock to them, and they won't. She added that Democrats are currently viewed even more negatively than Trump himself. The progressive wing, rather than expanding the coalition, is actively chasing away the swing voters Democrats desperately need.
None of this means November is a done deal. Plenty can change between now and election day. But the data right now paints a picture that should concern anyone banking on a repeat of 2018. The base has less energy, the polling margin is razor thin, and voters trust Democrats less on the issues that matter. That is not a wave. That is barely a ripple in a kiddie pool. Pretending otherwise will not change the math, no matter how many fundraising emails you send in ALL CAPS.
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