Steve Hilton has closed a 25 point deficit to just eight in the California governor's race.
A brand new poll shared with the California Post reveals Hilton trailing Xavier Becerra 49.2% to 41% among likely voters in November, as reported here. Nearly 10% remain on the fence. That gap was a whopping 25 points only two months ago. The Hilton campaign says they have shaved 17 points off the margin in under eight weeks. And here is the part that should terrify Democrats: Becerra has dropped below the critical 50% mark.
Why does that matter so much? Because in competitive races, undecided voters historically break against the candidate associated with the status quo. And right now, the status quo in California is an absolute dumpster fire.
Let us count the ways the Golden State is crumbling. The business climate ranks among the nation's worst. Typhus has literally returned to Los Angeles. Crews hauled 13 million pounds of garbage out of one single park. HHS has deferred $1 billion in Medicaid payments to the state while investigating active fraud. The DOJ has launched a probe into Gavin Newsom. Companies are racing to Texas like it is the last lifeboat on the Titanic. And 56% of California residents believe their state is going in the wrong direction.
Now here is where it gets really juicy. Becerra is the former HHS Secretary whose department lost track of 140,000 unaccompanied migrant children. He called a facility later connected to child trafficking "a model" for the nation. A trafficking victim actually named him on camera. And he has been ducking questions from California reporters about his record ever since.
Hilton, meanwhile, has positioned himself as a practical conservative with actual plans to tackle homelessness, skyrocketing living costs, rampant crime, and the mass exodus of businesses. He is not running like someone who has already conceded. That strategy is clearly connecting with voters in ways that pundits never anticipated.
So can Hilton actually pull this off? The math is still brutal. California has roughly 6 million registered Republicans compared to a much larger Democratic base. Democrats have locked up every statewide office for an entire generation. Their voter turnout operations are among the most well oiled machines in American politics.
But here is the thing. "Still unlikely" and "impossible" live on completely different planets. A Berkeley poll taken just one week prior had Becerra ahead by 18. Now it is 8. He is sitting below 50%. There are still 70 days left on the clock.
If Republican turnout matches registration numbers, if Becerra's baggage finally catches up with him, and if the national political winds keep blowing in the same direction, this contest is far from settled. Hilton is gaining momentum. Becerra is stalling. Every Democratic strategist in Sacramento should be losing sleep right about now.
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