Every midterm cycle, the same doom and gloom narrative rolls out for the party controlling the White House: you are going to lose seats, buddy. Republicans hold unified power right now, so conventional wisdom says they should be sweating. But as USA Journal noted, this cycle has some quirks that make things a whole lot rosier for the GOP than history would suggest, especially in the Senate.
New polling from The New York Times and Siena, broken down by The Hill, shows Democrats are competitive in six key Senate races but still trailing in most of them. The only places where Democrats are actually leading are North Carolina, where Roy Cooper is up 50 to 43 over Michael Whatley, and Maine, where progressive Graham Platner holds a slim 49 to 47 edge over Susan Collins. Everywhere else, Republicans are ahead or tied.
In Texas, Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton are deadlocked at 47 apiece. Iowa's Ashley Hinson leads Democrat Josh Turek 48 to 46. Alaska's Dan Sullivan edges Mary Peltola 47 to 45. And in Ohio, Jon Husted sits at 50 compared to former Senator Sherrod Brown's 47.
Now, Democrats need a net gain of four seats to flip the Senate, which the GOP currently holds 53 to 47. That is a tall order when you are only leading in two of six battlegrounds and one of those leads is within the margin of error.
Let us talk reality for a second. Texas going blue in a Senate race would require a political earthquake. Paxton has Trump's endorsement and, more importantly, this is Texas. Talarico would need to convince a whole lot of Texans to do something they almost never do, which is vote for a Democrat for Senate. Good luck with that, friend.
Maine is interesting because Collins has survived every wave that has been thrown at her over the years. The woman is basically a political cockroach (meant with the utmost respect for her survival instincts). Iowa and Ohio have been trending so red that Democrats competing there feels a bit like bringing a pool noodle to a sword fight.
One social media analyst put it this way: Democrats' most realistic path runs through flipping North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, and Alaska while holding everything else. Texas could get spicy if Latino voter realignment materializes, but that has been the Democratic unicorn for about two decades now.
The Cooper race in North Carolina looks like the most likely flip, though even that comes with an asterisk. Cooper is running as a moderate, which does not exactly thrill the progressive wing of his party. And the seat he would be replacing belongs to Thom Tillis, who is not exactly Trump's biggest fan anyway.
So where does that leave us? Republicans are in a historically unusual position for a midterm party: sitting comfortably. The maps favor them, the polling favors them, and the math favors them. Democrats have a path to the majority the same way I have a path to the NBA. It exists in theory, but nobody should bet the mortgage on it.
Read more conservative news commentary at: USA Journal News
