Roy Cooper's once massive polling advantage just got slashed by two thirds. The former North Carolina governor, who Democrats were banking on as their golden ticket to reclaim the Senate majority, now leads Republican Michael Whatley by a mere five points in a brand new High Point University survey, as reported here. That margin sat at a comfortable 15 points not long ago.
Let that sink in for a moment.
The poll, conducted from August 3 through 12, puts Cooper at 50 percent and Whatley at 45 percent among likely voters. With registered voters, the split is 48 to 41. Cooper is sitting right at that razor thin 50 percent threshold, which is basically the danger zone for any incumbent or well known candidate. And Whatley? He is still in the process of building his name recognition across the state. That gap has only one direction left to travel.
Here is what makes this so juicy for political junkies. Cooper was supposed to be the safest play in the entire Democratic Senate playbook. The guy survived multiple Republican wave elections as governor in a state that has been trending redder by the cycle. His approval numbers were the envy of every Democrat trying to hold ground in hostile territory. If anyone could pull off a comfortable win, it was him.
The NRSC wasted zero time twisting the knife. They called the conventional wisdom about Cooper's strength "simply wrong" and predicted the race will only get tighter as voters learn more about Whatley and Cooper's weaknesses come under the spotlight.
Meanwhile, the national picture for Democrats is looking uglier than a Florida man mugshot. Their Senate candidate roster in other battleground states has turned into a liability parade. Graham Platner in Maine was revealed to have a Nazi tattoo. Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan stated that Israel lacks a right to exist. Angie Nixon showed up with her pink megaphone routine in Florida. North Carolina was the one state where Democrats thought they had a serious contender who could actually close the deal in November.
Now pile the money situation on top of all that. The DNC is basically running on fumes, carrying $18.5 million in debt against only $16 million in assets. They have reportedly mortgaged their own headquarters and asked vendors to delay their bills. On the Republican side, the NRSC is sitting on a war chest of $55.9 million, and Donald Trump has signaled he plans to unleash funding from his personal PAC.
So Whatley is about to be flush with resources heading into the fall stretch, while Cooper watches his comfortable cushion evaporate week after week.
Both parties absolutely need North Carolina to secure a Senate majority. There is no path around it for either side. With 73 days remaining until voters head to the polls, Chuck Schumer's dream of reclaiming the majority leader title is looking shakier than ever. That trendline is moving fast, and it is not moving in his direction.
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