Michigan's Democratic Senate nominee is tanking with Black voters. Abdul El-Sayed, a self-described democratic socialist, is pulling just 75% of Black voter support in the state, a catastrophic 18-point nosedive compared to Joe Biden's 2020 numbers with that same group, according to reports. And guess what? It's not just a Michigan problem. Socialist candidates across multiple swing states are watching their support evaporate among one of the Democratic Party's most critical voting blocs.
Let's talk numbers, because they are absolutely brutal. Republican Mike Rogers currently leads El-Sayed 51% to 47% in the latest Fox News survey, though that gap falls inside the margin of error. Fox has officially moved the Michigan Senate contest into toss-up territory, handing the GOP a legitimate shot at flipping a seat held by retiring Democrat Gary Peters.
Here's the juicy part. El-Sayed ran on a platform so far left it practically needed a passport. Medicare for All, abolishing ICE, the whole progressive buffet. He locked down endorsements from Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and Democratic Socialists of America activists. Among DSA loyalists, he's sitting pretty at 98% support. But among Democrats and left-leaning independents who don't wave the DSA flag? That number craters to 69%. Nearly a third of surveyed Democrats said they worry his positions are simply too extreme.
El-Sayed got smoked in Black-majority areas like Detroit during the primary. And he's not alone. Wisconsin's democratic socialist candidate Francesca Hong underperformed badly in Milwaukee. New York City mayoral hopeful Zohran Mamdani struggled so much with Black voters during his 2025 campaign that he had to launch what was called a "Black media blitz" just to stop the bleeding.
Nationally, only 36% of Black Americans view the Democratic Socialists of America favorably. That is a devastating number for any candidate wearing that label into a general election.
The broader picture looks equally grim for Democrats across battleground states. Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff is trailing Biden's 2020 Black voter support by ten points. North Carolina's Democratic nominee is running seven points behind that same benchmark. Texas Senate candidate James Talarico is roughly matching Biden's old numbers, making Michigan the most glaring example of socialist-driven erosion.
Donald Trump cracked open these vulnerabilities during the 2024 presidential race, boosting his Hispanic support to 41%, gaining ten points among young voters, and pulling 15% of the Black vote. One in five Black voters still approves of his job performance today. Democrats have clawed back some ground with younger and Latino voters heading into 2026, but Black voter enthusiasm has not returned to previous levels. Nationally, just 69% of Black voters say they plan to back the Democrat in their congressional race, a staggering 21-point drop from Biden's 2020 showing.
Absentee ballots go out in Michigan on September 24th, leaving El-Sayed precious little runway to rebuild the coalition he desperately needs. Roughly one quarter of Black Michigan voters currently aren't backing him. The Senate landscape now features six toss-up races, creating scenarios where Democrats could grab 53 seats or Republicans could hold their majority without losing a single one. The stakes couldn't be higher, and the clock is absolutely ticking.
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