Kathy Hochul can't crack 50% in her own state. That's the brutal takeaway from a fresh Siena Research Institute poll that has the New York governor clinging to a 49% to 39% lead over Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman, as reported this week. The survey covered 811 likely voters between August 3rd and August 6th, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 points.
Here's the part that should keep Team Hochul awake at night. Back in June, she was up 52% to 32% among registered voters. That's a 20 point cushion. Now it's 10. Her lead got cut in half faster than a New York City bodega sandwich at lunchtime.
But the truly delicious detail is what voters think about Blakeman, the Nassau County executive. A full 40% of respondents said they don't know enough about the guy to even form an opinion. And yet, he's already beating Hochul among independents 45% to 40%. Voters who barely recognize your opponent are already choosing him over you. That's not a polling problem. That's a personality problem.
Hochul's favorability numbers are underwater, with 46% viewing her positively and 49% negatively. Her job approval tells the same sad story, sitting at 48% approve versus 49% disapprove. She is essentially treading water in a pool she built herself.
On the issues, things get even more awkward for the governor. She leads on affordable housing by 16 points, which sounds great until you realize her advantage on addressing illegal immigrants in the state is literally one single point, 45% to 44%. On keeping residents safe, it's barely better at 47% to 44%. Pollster Steven Greenberg basically summarized the situation as "the good news is you're winning, the bad news is you're barely winning on almost everything."
Then there are the personality traits. Voters were asked whether each candidate is tough, honest, in touch with regular people, and capable of accomplishing things. Blakeman won every single category in net ratings. He scored a net 25 point margin on toughness compared to Hochul's measly two points. Remember, four out of ten voters still don't know who this man is.
Perhaps the most embarrassing data point for Hochul is how she compares to fellow Democrats on the same ballot. Attorney General Letitia James is cruising at 54% against her Republican opponent. State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli is sitting pretty at 55%. The generic Democrat on the congressional ballot pulls 54%. Hochul is the only Democrat in the bunch who can't even touch the majority threshold. She's performing below the brand.
Blakeman, for his part, rejected the entire poll. He claimed other surveys show the race virtually tied and called Siena's numbers consistently wrong. "We know and she knows this race is neck and neck," he declared, which is a bold thing to say when you're technically still losing by double digits.
Three months until Election Day. One candidate is underwater on favorability. The other is basically unknown. New York politics, ladies and gentlemen.
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